Seminar on Recent Developments and Tools
for the Analysis of the Economic Situation
CEMLA and Banco de España.
The Seminar addresses the different tools and developments that are currently used to analyze the situation of an economy and to determine its short term cyclical position. The elements of analysis and constraints will be reviewed, such as data sources; the cycle, the trend, the structural change, the forecast horizon and the changes in policies; as well as the formation of expectations. Likewise, the prediction process of aggregate economic activity in the short term will be reviewed considering: conjunctural indicators; aggregate and disaggregated (supply and demand) models of Banco de España; and the role of the models and of the specialist's judgment. It will also be analyzed how short-term forecasts are incorporated in the medium term forecasts, using as a reference the quarterly model of Banco de España; the BVAR type models; as well as Learning Models and the incorporation of economic policy announcements. Other topics covered by the Seminar are the analysis of inflation in the short and medium term; the measurement of uncertainty and conjunctural analysis in a framework of limited information, particularly, the case of regional economic analysis for Spain. With regard to new tools, the Seminar will address the use of textual analysis and Internet queries for the development of conjunctural indicators, such as: indicators of economic uncertainty and economic policies indicators related to "text mining"; google trends on applications for the monitoring and forecasting of consumption, tourism and housing; and other internet sources.
Promote an exchange of experiences and knowledge among the officials of the Directorate General of Economics and Statistics of Banco de España and the participants from Latin America and the Caribbean central banks on recent developments and available tools for the analysis of the situation of an economy.
Professionals from central banks that produce conjunctural indicators, as well as those who are responsible for conjunctural analysis and of the economy as a whole, and those in charge of economic forecasts.
Jesús A. Cervantes G.
Economic Statistics Manager
Phone: +52 (55) 5061-6661
Economic Statistics Deputy Manager
Phone: +52 (55) 5061-6673